Identification and Prioritization of Key Drivers Affecting the Future of Oil and Gas Resource Exploitation Using the Delphi Approach
Keywords:
Key drivers, Delphi method, oil and gas industry, optimal exploitation, energy policymaking, strategic uncertaintyAbstract
The present study was conducted with the aim of identifying and prioritizing the key drivers influencing the future of oil and gas resource exploitation in Iran, employing the Delphi method within the framework of strategic foresight. Given the complexity, uncertainty, and multidimensional nature of transformations in the energy sector, identifying the driving forces shaping the future of this domain is considered a strategic necessity for national decision-making. In this regard, the statistical population of the study consisted of 25 prominent experts in the fields of oil and gas, energy economics, futures studies, and macro-level policymaking, who were selected through theoretical and purposive sampling, using a combination of judgmental and snowball techniques. Data were collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews, expert correspondences, and panel discussions, and the process continued until theoretical saturation was achieved. In the initial phase, 70 potential drivers were extracted through the analysis of documents, specialized reports, and reference texts. Subsequently, through a process of screening, conceptual refinement, and integration of overlapping elements, a final list of 31 drivers was developed across seven strategic domains (economic, technological, political–legal, institutional, social, environmental, and educational–research). In subsequent stages, these drivers entered a multi-round Delphi process to enable evaluation, validation, and expert consensus regarding their importance and impact. The Delphi approach facilitated the integration of diverse expert perspectives and reduced individual biases, leading to the clarification of structural forces affecting the future of hydrocarbon resource exploitation in the country. The findings indicate that drivers related to advanced extraction technologies and digitalization, energy governance and institutional transparency, energy diplomacy, investment management, geopolitical risk management, and environmental requirements hold the highest strategic importance. The results of this study can serve as an analytical framework for macro-level planning, the design of field development strategies, sustainable resource management, and forward-looking policymaking in Iran’s oil and gas industry.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Naser Mastri Farahani, Seyed Abdollah Mousavi, Heydar Zobeidy (Author)
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