Central Bank Digital Currencies and Monetary Policy Transmission: Implications for Financial Stability

Majid Hameed Dhayea Ziyadi; Jafar Haghighat

Authors

Majid Hameed Dhayea Ziyadi Master of Science in Economics, Islamic Financial Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran Author https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0599-7141
Jafar Haghighat Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Accounting, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran Author https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5470-5220

Keywords:

Central Bank Digital Currency, Monetary Policy Transmission, Financial Stability, Bank Disintermediation, Payment, System Resilience, Banking, Sector Intermediation

Abstract

This study aimed to examine the effects of central bank digital currency (CBDC) development and utilization on monetary policy transmission and financial stability, with emphasis on the mediating roles of payment-system efficiency and resilience, banking-sector intermediation, bank disintermediation risk, and liquidity and funding pressure. This quantitative, applied, and explanatory cross-sectional study was conducted among 384 professionals in Tehran working in central banking, commercial and specialized banks, fintech companies, payment service providers, financial institutions, and academic or research organizations. Data were collected using a researcher-developed questionnaire assessing CBDC development, monetary policy transmission, banking-sector intermediation, bank disintermediation risk, liquidity and funding pressure, payment-system efficiency and resilience, and financial stability. Reliability and construct validity were evaluated using Cronbach’s alpha, composite reliability, average variance extracted, and HTMT ratios. Data analysis was performed with SPSS 27 and SmartPLS 4 using partial least squares structural equation modeling and 5,000-resample bootstrapping. CBDC development significantly improved monetary policy transmission (β = 0.641, p < 0.001) and payment-system efficiency and resilience (β = 0.584, p < 0.001), while increasing bank disintermediation risk (β = 0.493, p < 0.001) and liquidity and funding pressure (β = 0.382, p < 0.001) and reducing banking-sector intermediation (β = -0.217, p = 0.001). Monetary policy transmission (β = 0.348, p < 0.001), payment-system efficiency and resilience (β = 0.301, p < 0.001), and banking-sector intermediation (β = 0.196, p < 0.001) positively affected financial stability, whereas bank disintermediation risk (β = -0.241, p < 0.001) and liquidity and funding pressure (β = -0.188, p < 0.001) had negative effects. The total effect of CBDC development on financial stability was positive and significant (β = 0.329, p < 0.001), and the model explained 63.8% of the variance in financial stability. CBDCs can strengthen financial stability primarily through enhanced monetary policy transmission and payment-system resilience, although these benefits may be partly offset by bank disintermediation and funding pressures, underscoring the need for carefully calibrated CBDC design and implementation.

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