Analysis of the Effects of Geopolitical Risk and Remittances on Informal Employment in Selected OPEC Countries (Quantile Approach)
Keywords:
Informal employment, remittances, geopolitical risk, quantile regressionAbstract
The main objective of this article is to analyze the effects of geopolitical risk and remittances on informal employment in selected OPEC countries during the period 2010–2023. For this purpose, the quantile regression method was employed. The results indicate that remittances in the lower, middle, and upper quantiles have led to an increase in informal employment. Geopolitical risk, in the middle and upper quantiles, has resulted in a decrease in informal employment. The interactive effect of geopolitical risk and remittances in the lower, middle, and upper quantiles has had a negative effect on informal employment, suggesting that an increase in geopolitical risk reduces the positive impact of remittances on informal employment. Unemployment rate and population in all three quantiles have contributed to an increase in informal employment. Government legitimacy, in all three quantiles, has led to a reduction in informal employment. Furthermore, the results of the Wald symmetry test indicate that the effects of remittances, geopolitical risk, and their interaction on informal employment are symmetric across different quantiles. In contrast, the effects of unemployment rate, population, and government legitimacy have been asymmetric across different quantiles.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Zinah Khudhair Mhmood, Sara Ghobadi, Amjed Subhi Sahib, Hossein Sharifi Renani (Author)
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