Developing a Foresight Framework for the Publishing Industry Based on a Hybrid Approach

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to delineate the future prospects of Iran’s publishing industry by the horizon of 2035 and to propose an operational framework for decision-making under conditions of high uncertainty. To achieve this, a multi-stage process in the field of qualitative foresight research was employed. First, horizon scanning and the identification of weak signals of change were conducted using the STEEP approach. Then, an initial list of drivers and uncertainties was extracted and refined through a two-round Delphi method with the participation of experts. The findings indicated that “digitalization of the value chain,” “governance of intellectual property rights in the digital environment,” “data-driven consumer behavior,” “economic resilience of publishing,” and “governmental supportive and regulatory policies” are among the key drivers. In addition, two fundamental uncertainties—“the trajectory of enabling technology transformation (such as artificial intelligence, augmented reality, and digital platforms)” and “the state of the macroeconomy and consumers’ purchasing power”—were identified as the most critical variables shaping the future structure of the publishing industry. The main contribution of this research is the development of an integrated framework for qualitative foresight in the publishing industry (a combination of STEEP–Delphi–MICMAC–MACTOR). This framework not only enables precise identification of key drivers and uncertainties but also provides an effective analytical tool for monitoring changes, forecasting developments, and restructuring strategies for publishers, policymakers, and active digital platforms in the publishing domain. The proposed framework can facilitate future-oriented decision-making and enhance the resilience of this industry in the face of rapid environmental transformations.